With the dawn of Modi 3.0, all eyes are eagerly set on the upcoming Union Budget of 2024, slated for presentation in July. Anticipation runs high among industries, farmers, taxpayers, and the middle class alike, as they await potential boosts and tax reliefs from Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. As the first budget of this new government term, expectations are rife for impactful announcements that could shape India’s economic trajectory in the year ahead.

Recap of Union Budget 2020: The New Tax Regime

Introduction of New Tax Regime:

• The Modi government introduced a new tax regime with lower slabs but without traditional deductions.
• Failed to attract expected adoption, prompting adjustments such as a standard deduction and rebate up to ₹7 lakh to incentivize taxpayers.

Expected Changes in the New Tax Regime

Challenges and Anticipations:

• Despite offering lower tax rates, the new tax regime has not gained significant traction among taxpayers.
• To enhance its appeal and encourage broader adoption, the government is anticipated to introduce additional deductions under this regime.

Potential Revisions:

• Increasing the 80C deduction limit from ₹1.5 lakh to ₹2 lakh under the old tax regime, which was last revised in 2014 by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley during Modi 1.0 government.
• Currently, section 80C benefits are not available under the default (new) tax regime.
• It is expected that this benefit will be extended to the default tax regime to incentivize more taxpayers to opt for it, as suggested by Suresh Surana, Founder of RSM India, reported by Financial Express.

Expected Revisions in the Old Tax Regime

Section 80C of the Income-tax Act, 1961:

• Deductions encompass various savings and investments including LIC, PPF, RPF contributions, and more.
• The current annual limit for these deductions stands at ₹1,50,000.

Stakeholder Expectations:

• Stakeholders argue that this limit is restrictive considering the breadth of eligible investments such as fixed deposits, ELSS, housing loan principal, life insurance premiums, and others.
• There is anticipation for an increase in this deduction limit to ₹2 lakh per annum to better accommodate the range of investment options available, reported by Financial Express.

Will Budget 2024 Bring Tax Relief to Boost Consumption?

Income Tax Reforms:

• Budget 2024 is anticipated to introduce reforms to the income tax structure in India, focusing on reducing taxes for lower income brackets to stimulate consumption.
• The Indian Express reports that the government may prioritize tax cuts over increased welfare spending in July’s budget announcement.

Current Tax Structure:

• Income tax starts at 5% for earnings exceeding ₹3 lakh and rises sharply to 30% for income over ₹15 lakh, a sixfold increase despite a fivefold income rise.
• Officials suggest that rationalising these tax slabs could significantly increase disposable income, thereby boosting economic activity and GST collections.

Pre-Budget Consultations and Economic Goals

Consultations:

• Finance Minister is initiating pre-budget consultations with industry groups from June 20, following discussions with Revenue Secretary Sanjay Malhotra on June 18.
• The upcoming budget under Modi 3.0 aims to balance growth acceleration and inflation control while funding coalition commitments.

Economic Targets:

• India targets becoming a USD 5-trillion economy and achieving ‘Developed India’ status by 2047.
• The RBI forecasts a 7.2% economic growth this fiscal year, driven by rural demand and easing inflation.

Global Economic Outlook and India’s Position

Positive Feedback:

• India’s economic policies have garnered positive feedback, with S&P upgrading the sovereign rating outlook to positive, contingent on meeting fiscal targets.

Challenges:

• Non-tax revenue remains a challenge, except for the strategic disinvestment of Air India, reported by India Today.

As we approach the presentation of the Union Budget 2024, the nation’s stakeholders hold high hopes for impactful reforms and tax reliefs that could steer India’s economic future towards robust growth and stability.