The possibility of inflation still exists for the domestic economy. Regarding this, the RBI and the Central Government are both vigilant. In the meanwhile, there is a real risk that the recession may return in 2019.

In the October Economic Review report, which was made public on Tuesday, the Finance Ministry stated that the recent cooling of crude oil prices throughout the world and the ongoing decrease in core inflation had contributed to lessening the pressure on inflation. This scenario is known to the central bank as well. Its signs suggest that if more interest rate increases are required to alleviate the burden of high prices, they may occur.

According to the assessment study, there are still dangers of uncertainty surrounding the global recession because of rising food and energy costs as well as geopolitical tensions.

The potential reduction in foreign goods exports might put pressure on world commerce. Given these circumstances, there might be a chance of a recession in 2024.

The ministry stated in the review that as a result of high imports and low exports in October, the nation’s trade imbalance reached a record high. In October of this year, compared to October of last year, gold imports have nearly quadrupled due to high seasonal demand.  Despite this, a decrease in imports of goods and services caused the overall trade imbalance to drop on an annual basis during the April–October 2023 period.

The Indian economy, according to economists, may contract in the second quarter of the current fiscal year by 80–100 basis points annually. Weak external demand is thought to be the primary cause of this.

In addition, the GDP estimates will be impacted by variable rainfall, a potential slowdown in government capital investment owing to general elections, and monetary tightening.

In the second quarter, there might be a 7% GDP growth rate. This will exceed the 6.5% prediction provided by the RBI. On November 30, the government could disclose GDP data for the second quarter.

Gold prices in the Delhi bullion market increased by Rs 380 on Tuesday, crossing Rs 62,000 and closing at Rs 62,150 per 10 kilos, as a result of the surge in precious metals on international markets. Additionally, the price of silver increased by Rs 100, closing at Rs 76,400 per kilogram.

As a result of predictions that the Federal Reserve would not raise interest rates, the dollar and Treasury yields declined. As a result, the price of gold surged to a record high of $1,992 per ounce on the global market.